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Special Feature · 2026 Midterms

2026 Midterm Election Forecast: Senate, House and Governors

Who is on track to control Congress after the November 3, 2026 midterms, race by race: every Senate race, all 435 House districts and the 36 governor races, built from the published polls and each state's and district's partisan lean, and simulated 10,000 times.

House: D 93%
chance Democrats win the House · Senate: Democrats win control in 74% of simulations · Governors: Democrats projected to hold 28 of 50 · last updated November 3, 2026, 6:45 p.m. ET · refreshed every hour until election day
234House seats projected for Democrats (218 for a majority)
47Senate seats projected for Republicans (50 keeps control)
28governorships projected for Democrats
D+8.2generic ballot average, Democrats 51.7%, Republicans 43.6%

01The Forecast at a Glance

ContestProjected90% rangeDemocrats winRepublicans win
House (435 seats, 218 for a majority)234 D, 201 R216–257 D93%7%
Senate (100 seats; Republicans keep control at 50)47 R, 52 D43–52 R74%24%
Governors (50 states, 36 up in 2026)28 D, 22 R23–33 D––

Out of 10,000 simulated elections as of November 3, 2026, 6:45 p.m. ET. Projected is the median seat count across the simulations, taken separately for each side, so the two figures need not add up to the chamber total; a Senate seat won by an independent candidate on the 2026 ballot (such as Dan Osborn in Nebraska) counts for neither side. Chances are rounded to whole percentages. Senate Democrats include the two independents who caucus with them (Angus King and Bernie Sanders, neither up in 2026). In 2% of simulations neither side reaches control on its own, because an independent who has pledged not to caucus with either party wins a seat. Governors not up in 2026 are counted as they stand. For the money behind these races, see the 2026 Midterm Money Tracker.

02Senate

Republicans hold 31 of the 65 seats not up this year and Democrats 34, so of the 35 seats on the ballot Republicans need 19 to keep control and Democrats need 17 to take it. The projection has Republicans at 47 seats (90% range 43 to 52), with 6 seats projected to change party: Alaska, Ohio, Kansas, Texas, Maine, North Carolina.

How often each Republican seat total came up in the simulations; the dashed line is 50, the number that keeps Republicans in control with the vice president's tie-breaking vote.


StateMatchupPollsProjectedChanceForecasters
IowaR+6 · Joni Ernst (R), not runningJosh Turek (D) v Ashley Hinson (R)D+0.317 polls, latest Nov 1R+0.151% RToss-upCook: Toss-up
AlaskaR+6 · Dan Sullivan (R)Mary Peltola (D) v Dan S. Sullivan (R)D+2.19 polls, latest Nov 1D+1.056% DToss-upCook: Toss-up
Ohio (special)R+5 · Jon Husted (R)Sherrod Brown (D) v Jon Husted (R)D+2.724 polls, latest Nov 1D+2.064% DTilt DCook: Toss-up
South CarolinaR+8 · Darline Graham (R)Annie Andrews (D) v Darline Graham (R)R+1.111 polls, latest Nov 1R+2.264% RTilt RCook: Lean R
KansasR+8 · Roger Marshall (R)Adam Hamilton (D) v Roger Marshall (R)D+4.212 polls, latest Nov 1D+2.666% DToss-upCook: Toss-up
TexasR+6 · John Cornyn (R), not runningJames Talarico (D) v Ken Paxton (R)D+3.334 polls, latest Nov 2D+2.767% DTilt DCook: Toss-up
NebraskaR+10 · Pete Ricketts (R)Dan Osborn (I) v Pete Ricketts (R)R+2.011 polls, latest Nov 1R+3.672% RLean RCook: Lean R
MaineD+4 · Susan Collins (R)Troy Jackson (D) v Susan Collins (R)D+4.218 polls, latest Nov 2D+4.879% DLean DCook: Toss-up
MichiganEVEN · Gary Peters (D), not runningAbdul El-Sayed (D) v Mike Rogers (R)D+5.024 polls, latest Nov 2D+5.281% DLean DCook: Lean D
Florida (special)R+5 · Ashley Moody (R)Angie Nixon (D) v Ashley Moody (R)R+5.622 polls, latest Nov 2R+5.783% RLikely RCook: Likely R
LouisianaR+11 · Bill Cassidy (R), not runningJamie Davis (D) v Julia Letlow (R)R+0.13 polls, latest Oct 31R+6.983% RLikely RCook: Safe R
MinnesotaD+3 · Tina Smith (D), not runningPeggy Flanagan (D) v Michele Tafoya (R)D+5.314 polls, latest Nov 1D+6.085% DLikely DCook: Lean D
MississippiR+11 · Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)Scott Colom (D) v Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)R+3.03 polls, latest Oct 22R+7.485% RLikely RCook: Likely R
New HampshireD+2 · Jeanne Shaheen (D), not runningChris Pappas (D) v John E. Sununu (R)D+8.39 polls, latest Nov 1D+8.692% DLikely DCook: Lean D
GeorgiaR+1 · Jon Ossoff (D)Jon Ossoff (D) v Mike Collins (R)D+8.57 polls, latest Nov 2D+8.992% DLikely DCook: Likely D
MontanaR+10 · Steve Daines (R), not runningSeth Bodnar (I) v Kurt Alme (R)R+7.56 polls, latest Oct 23R+9.493% RSafe RCook: Safe R
North CarolinaR+1 · Thom Tillis (R), not runningRoy Cooper (D) v Michael Whatley (R)D+10.713 polls, latest Nov 1D+10.196% DLikely DCook: Likely D
South DakotaR+15 · Mike Rounds (R)Brian Bengs (I) v Mike Rounds (R)R+10.27 polls, latest Oct 26R+13.798% RSafe RCook: Safe R
IllinoisD+6 · Dick Durbin (D), not runningJuliana Stratton (D) v Don Tracy (R)D+12.53 polls, latest Nov 2D+17.599% DSafe DCook: Safe D
AlabamaR+15 · Tommy Tuberville (R), not runningEverett Wess (D) v Barry Moore (R)R+13.74 polls, latest Oct 24R+16.999% RSafe RCook: Safe R
KentuckyR+15 · Mitch McConnell (R), not runningCharles Booker (D) v Andy Barr (R)R+9.02 polls, latest Aug 27R+19.399% RSafe RCook: Safe R
VirginiaD+3 · Mark Warner (D)Mark Warner (D) v Bert Mizusawa (R)D+18.42 polls, latest Jun 16D+20.4over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
New JerseyD+4 · Cory Booker (D)Cory Booker (D) v Justin Murphy (R)NoneD+22.1over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
ArkansasR+15 · Tom Cotton (R)Hallie Shoffner (D) v Tom Cotton (R)R+13.73 polls, latest Oct 28R+19.3over 99% RSafe RCook: Safe R
IdahoR+18 · Jim Risch (R)Todd Achilles (I) v Jim Risch (R)R+13.93 polls, latest Oct 22R+20.9over 99% RSafe RCook: Safe R
New MexicoD+4 · Ben Ray Luján (D)Ben Ray Luján (D) v Larry Marker (R)D+18.33 polls, latest Nov 2D+19.5over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
TennesseeR+14 · Bill Hagerty (R)Marquita Bradshaw (D) v Bill Hagerty (R)R+20.02 polls, latest Nov 2R+22.6over 99% RSafe RCook: Safe R
OklahomaR+17 · Alan Armstrong (R), not runningN'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) v Kevin Hern (R)R+24.01 poll, latest Aug 6R+25.2over 99% RSafe RCook: Safe R
ColoradoD+6 · John Hickenlooper (D)John Hickenlooper (D) v Mark Baisley (R)D+20.83 polls, latest Nov 2D+22.1over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
DelawareD+8 · Chris Coons (D)Chris Coons (D) v Michael Katz (R)NoneD+26.1over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
OregonD+8 · Jeff Merkley (D)Jeff Merkley (D) v David Brock Smith (R)NoneD+26.1over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
MassachusettsD+14 · Ed Markey (D)Ed Markey (D) v John Deaton (R)D+24.54 polls, latest Oct 31D+27.0over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
Rhode IslandD+8 · Jack Reed (D)Jack Reed (D) v Raymond McKay (R)D+30.43 polls, latest Oct 31D+28.7over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
West VirginiaR+21 · Shelley Moore Capito (R)Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) v Shelley Moore Capito (R)NoneR+30.9over 99% RSafe RCook: Safe R
WyomingR+23 · Cynthia Lummis (R), not runningJames W. Byrd (D) v Harriet Hageman (R)NoneR+31.4over 99% RSafe RCook: Safe R

Polls: the polling average margin for the race (Democrat or independent minus Republican). Projected: our margin after blending the polls with the starting point described under How It Works. Chance: how often the leader won in the simulations. Forecasters: the average rating of the forecasters listed on Wikipedia (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and others).

03House

Democrats are projected to win 234 seats (90% range 216 to 257); 218 is a majority. 73 districts are competitive in the model, meaning neither party wins them in more than 90% of simulations. House races are projected from each district's Cook Partisan Voting Index on the 2026 maps (which include the mid-decade redistricting in several states), the national generic ballot and incumbency; district polls are too sparse to use.

How often each Democratic seat total came up in the simulations; the dashed line is 218.


DistrictIncumbentPVIProjectedChance
Texas 35Johnny Garcia (D) v Carlos De La Cruz (R)OpenR+4D+0.251% D
Maine 2Matthew Dunlap (D) v Paul LePage (R)Jared Golden (D), not runningR+4D+0.251% D
Florida 22Pia Dandiya (D) v Casey Askar (R)OpenR+4D+0.251% D
Iowa 2Lindsay James (D) v Joe Mitchell (R)Ashley Hinson (R), not runningR+4D+0.251% D
Michigan 4Sean McCann (D) v Bill Huizenga (R)Bill Huizenga (R)R+3R+0.854% R
Virginia 1Shannon Taylor (D) v Rob Wittman (R)Rob Wittman (R)R+3R+0.854% R
Wisconsin 3Rebecca Cooke (D) v Derrick Van Orden (R)Derrick Van Orden (R)R+3R+0.854% R
Pennsylvania 10Janelle Stelson (D) v Scott Perry (R)Scott Perry (R)R+3R+0.855% R
Wisconsin 1Mitchell Berman (D) v Bryan Steil (R)Bryan Steil (R)R+2D+1.256% D
North Carolina 1Don Davis (D) v Laurie Buckhout (R)Don Davis (D)R+5D+1.256% D
Ohio 9Marcy Kaptur (D) v Derek Merrin (R)Marcy Kaptur (D)R+5D+1.256% D
Iowa 3Sarah Trone Garriott (D) v Zach Nunn (R)Zach Nunn (R)R+2D+1.256% D
North Carolina 11Jamie Ager (D) v Jennifer Balkcom (R)Chuck Edwards (R), not runningR+5R+1.859% R
Montana 1Sam Forstag (D) v Aaron Flint (R)Ryan Zinke (R), not runningR+5R+1.859% R
Florida 7Bale Dalton (D) v Ryan Elijah (R)Cory Mills (R), not runningR+5R+1.860% R
Michigan 10Christina Hines (D) v Mike Bouchard Jr. (R)John James (R), not runningR+3D+2.262% D
Missouri 2Fred Wellman (D) v Ann Wagner (R)Ann Wagner (R)R+4R+2.864% R
New York 1Chris Gallant (D) v Nick LaLota (R)Nick LaLota (R)R+4R+2.864% R
Iowa 1Christina Bohannan (D) v Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)R+4R+2.864% R
Pennsylvania 8Paige Cognetti (D) v Rob Bresnahan (R)Rob Bresnahan (R)R+4R+2.865% R
Ohio 10Kristina Knickerbocker (D) v Mike Turner (R)Mike Turner (R)R+4R+2.865% R
Alabama 2Shomari Figures (D) v Rhett Marques (R)Shomari Figures (D)R+7R+2.865% R
Pennsylvania 7Bob Brooks (D) v Ryan Mackenzie (R)Ryan Mackenzie (R)R+1D+3.266% D
Florida 14Kathy Castor (D) v Mike Beltran (R)Kathy Castor (D)R+4D+3.267% D
South Carolina 1Nancy Lacore (D) v Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R)Nancy Mace (R), not runningR+6R+3.869% R
Florida 16Kelly Kirschner (D) v Sydney Gruters (R)Vern Buchanan (R), not runningR+6R+3.869% R
Ohio 15Don Leonard (D) v Mike Carey (R)Mike Carey (R)R+5R+4.874% R
Ohio 7Brian Poindexter (D) v Max Miller (R)Max Miller (R)R+5R+4.874% R
Washington 5Carmela Conroy (D) v Michael Baumgartner (R)Michael Baumgartner (R)R+5R+4.874% R
Florida 25Jared Moskowitz (D) v Scott Singer (R)Jared Moskowitz Redistricted from the 23rd district (D)R+3D+5.274% D
Colorado 3Dwayne Romero (D) v Jeff Hurd (R)Jeff Hurd (R)R+5R+4.874% R
Florida 9Darren Soto (D) v Dan Green (R)Darren Soto (D)R+8R+4.874% R
New Jersey 2Zack Mullock (D) v Jeff Van Drew (R)Jeff Van Drew (R)R+5R+4.874% R
Florida 4LaShonda Holloway (D) v Aaron Bean (R)Aaron Bean (R)R+5R+4.874% R
Colorado 5Jessica Killin (D) v Jeff Crank (R)Jeff Crank (R)R+5R+4.874% R
Michigan 7William Lawrence (D) v Tom Barrett (R)Tom Barrett (R)EVEND+5.275% D
Virginia 2Elaine Luria (D) v Jen Kiggans (R)Jen Kiggans (R)EVEND+5.275% D
Colorado 8Manny Rutinel (D) v Gabe Evans (R)Gabe Evans (R)EVEND+5.276% D
New Jersey 7Rebecca Bennett (D) v Thomas Kean Jr. (R)Thomas Kean Jr. (R)EVEND+5.276% D
Texas 28Henry Cuellar (D) v Tano Tijerina (R)Henry Cuellar (D)R+3D+5.276% D
Texas 34Vicente Gonzalez (D) v Eric Flores (R)Vicente Gonzalez (D)R+3D+5.276% D
Arizona 6JoAnna Mendoza (D) v Juan Ciscomani (R)Juan Ciscomani (R)EVEND+5.276% D
Texas 23Katy Padilla Stout (D) v Brandon Herrera (R)OpenR+7R+5.878% R
Nevada 2Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) v David Flippo (R)Mark Amodei (R), not runningR+7R+5.878% R
Kentucky 6Zach Dembo (D) v Ralph Alvarado (R)Andy Barr (R), not runningR+7R+5.878% R
Florida 11James Pericola (D) v Joe Strada (R)Daniel Webster (R), not runningR+7R+5.878% R
Arizona 1Amish Shah (D) v Jay Feely (R)David Schweikert (R), not runningR+1D+6.279% D
Florida 27Eliott Rodriguez (D) v María Elvira Salazar (R)María Elvira Salazar (R)R+6R+6.881% R
Virginia 5Tom Perriello (D) v John McGuire (R)John McGuire (R)R+6R+6.881% R
Florida 13Leela Gray (D) v Anna Paulina Luna (R)Anna Paulina Luna (R)R+6R+6.882% R
Nebraska 1Chris Backemeyer (D) v Mike Flood (R)Mike Flood (R)R+6R+6.882% R
Alaska at-largeEric Hafner (D) v Nick Begich III (R)Nick Begich III (R)R+6R+6.882% R
New York 2Patrick Halpin (D) v Andrew Garbarino (R)Andrew Garbarino (R)R+6R+6.882% R
North Carolina 3Raymond Smith Jr. (D) v Greg Murphy (R)Greg Murphy (R)R+6R+6.882% R
Minnesota 1Jake Johnson (D) v Brad Finstad (R)Brad Finstad (R)R+6R+6.882% R
Pennsylvania 1Bob Harvie (D) v Brian Fitzpatrick (R)Brian Fitzpatrick (R)D+1D+7.283% D
California 22Randy Villegas (D) v David Valadao (R)David Valadao (R)D+1D+7.283% D
New York 17Cait Conley (D) v Mike Lawler (R)Mike Lawler (R)D+1D+7.283% D
Washington 3Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) v John Braun (R)Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)R+2D+7.283% D
Florida 2Amanda Green (D) v Austin Rogers (R)Neal Dunn (R), not runningR+8R+7.884% R
Georgia 1Amanda Hollowell (D) v Jim Kingston (R)Buddy Carter (R), not runningR+8R+7.885% R
Texas 32Dan Barrios (D) v Jace Yarbrough (R)OpenR+8R+7.885% R
Florida 12Kimberly Overman (D) v Gus Bilirakis (R)Gus Bilirakis (R)R+7R+8.887% R
North Carolina 7Kimberly Hardy (D) v David Rouzer (R)David Rouzer (R)R+7R+8.888% R
Arizona 2Jonathan Nez (D) v Eli Crane (R)Eli Crane (R)R+7R+8.888% R
Texas 15Bobby Pulido (D) v Monica De La Cruz (R)Monica De La Cruz (R)R+7R+8.888% R
Minnesota 8Trina Swanson (D) v Pete Stauber (R)Pete Stauber (R)R+7R+8.888% R
South Carolina 2Zyon Khalifa (D) v Joe Wilson (R)Joe Wilson (R)R+7R+8.888% R
Florida 21James Martin (D) v Brian Mast (R)Brian Mast (R)R+7R+8.888% R
Florida 26Nicole Locklin (D) v Mario Díaz-Balart (R)Mario Díaz-Balart (R)R+7R+8.888% R
Georgia 12Ceretta Smith (D) v Rick Allen (R)Rick Allen (R)R+7R+8.888% R
Michigan 8Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) v Thomas Smith (R)Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)R+1D+9.289% D
Ohio 1Greg Landsman (D) v Eric Conroy (R)Greg Landsman (D)R+1D+9.289% D
Texas 9Leticia Gutierrez (D) v Alex Mealer (R)OpenR+9R+9.890% R
Tennessee 9Justin Pearson (D) v Brent Taylor (R)Steve Cohen (D), not runningR+9R+9.890% R
Arkansas 2Chris Jones (D) v French Hill (R)French Hill (R)R+8R+10.892% R
Ohio 8Vanessa Enoch (D) v Warren Davidson (R)Warren Davidson (R)R+8R+10.892% R
North Carolina 14Lakesha Womack (D) v Tim Moore (R)Tim Moore (R)R+8R+10.892% R
North Carolina 9Richard Ojeda (D) v Richard Hudson (R)Richard Hudson (R)R+8R+10.892% R
Texas 24Kevin Burge (D) v Beth Van Duyne (R)Beth Van Duyne (R)R+8R+10.892% R
Florida 8Jennifer Jenkins (D) v Mike Haridopolos (R)Mike Haridopolos (R)R+8R+10.892% R
Arizona 8Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D) v Abraham Hamadeh (R)Abraham Hamadeh (R)R+8R+10.892% R
Florida 18Curtis Gibson (D) v Scott Franklin (R)Scott Franklin (R)R+8R+10.892% R
Wisconsin 8Rick Crosson (D) v Tony Wied (R)Tony Wied (R)R+8R+10.892% R
Indiana 5J. D. Ford (D) v Victoria Spartz (R)Victoria Spartz (R)R+8R+10.893% R
North Carolina 13Paul Barringer (D) v Brad Knott (R)Brad Knott (R)R+8R+10.893% R
Maryland 1Dan Schwartz (D) v Andy Harris (R)Andy Harris (R)R+8R+10.893% R
Wisconsin 6Brad Smith (D) v Glenn Grothman (R)Glenn Grothman (R)R+8R+10.893% R
New York 3Tom Suozzi (D) v Mike LiPetri (R)Tom Suozzi (D)EVEND+11.293% D
New Mexico 2Gabe Vasquez (D) v Greg Cunningham (R)Gabe Vasquez (D)EVEND+11.293% D
New York 21Blake Gendebien (D) v Anthony Constantino (R)Elise Stefanik (R), not runningR+10R+11.894% R
Tennessee 5Chaz Molder (D) v Charlie Hatcher (R)Andy Ogles (R), not runningR+10R+11.894% R
Texas 10Caitlin Rourk (D) v Chris Gober (R)Michael McCaul (R), not runningR+10R+11.894% R
Texas 38Melissa McDonough (D) v Jon Bonck (R)Wesley Hunt (R), not runningR+10R+11.894% R
Texas 21Kristin Hook (D) v Mark Teixeira (R)Chip Roy (R), not runningR+10R+11.894% R
Washington 4John Duresky (D) v Amanda McKinney (R)Dan Newhouse (R), not runningR+10R+11.894% R
Arizona 5Elizabeth Lee (D) v Mark Lamb (R)Andy Biggs (R), not runningR+10R+11.894% R
California 48Marni von Wilpert (D) v Jim Desmond (R)Darrell Issa (R), not runningD+2D+12.294% D
New Hampshire 1Stefany Shaheen (D) v Anthony DiLorenzo (R)Chris Pappas (D), not runningD+2D+12.295% D
Florida 15Robert People (D) v Laurel Lee (R)Laurel Lee (R)R+9R+12.895% R
North Carolina 5Chuck Hubbard (D) v Virginia Foxx (R)Virginia Foxx (R)R+9R+12.895% R
North Carolina 6Cyril Jefferson (D) v Addison McDowell (R)Addison McDowell (R)R+9R+12.895% R
Oklahoma 5Jena Nelson (D) v Stephanie Bice (R)Stephanie Bice (R)R+9R+12.895% R
California 23Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) v Jay Obernolte (R)Jay Obernolte (R)R+9R+12.895% R
North Carolina 10Ashley Bell (D) v Pat Harrigan (R)Pat Harrigan (R)R+9R+12.895% R
Nevada 3Susie Lee (D) v Martin O'Donnell (R)Susie Lee (D)D+1D+13.295% D
Colorado 4Eileen Laubacher (D) v Lauren Boebert (R)Lauren Boebert (R)R+9R+12.896% R
New York 19Josh Riley (D) v Peter Oberacker (R)Josh Riley (D)D+1D+13.296% D
Indiana 1Frank Mrvan (D) v Barb Regnitz (R)Frank J. Mrvan (D)D+1D+13.296% D
Texas 22Marquette Greene-Scott (D) v Trever Nehls (R)Troy Nehls (R), not runningR+11R+13.896% R
Oklahoma 1John Croisant (D) v Mark Tedford (R)Kevin Hern (R), not runningR+11R+13.896% R
South Carolina 5Mallory Dittmer (D) v Wes Climer (R)Ralph Norman (R), not runningR+11R+13.896% R
Georgia 10Pam Delancy (D) v Houston Gaines (R)Mike Collins (R), not runningR+11R+13.897% R
Texas 2Shaun Finnie (D) v Steve Toth (R)Dan Crenshaw (R), not runningR+11R+13.897% R
Wisconsin 7Fred Clark (D) v Michael Alfonso (R)Tom Tiffany (R), not runningR+11R+13.897% R
Nebraska 2Denise Powell (D) v Brinker Harding (R)Don Bacon (R), not runningD+3D+14.297% D
Minnesota 2Matt Little (D) v Eric Pratt (R)Angie Craig (D), not runningD+3D+14.297% D
Florida 17Matthew Montavon (D) v Greg Steube (R)Greg Steube (R)R+10R+14.897% R
Florida 28Phil Ehr (D) v Carlos Giménez (R)Carlos A. Giménez (R)R+10R+14.897% R
Texas 5Chelsey Hockett (D) v Lance Gooden (R)Lance Gooden (R)R+10R+14.897% R
North Carolina 8Colby Watson (D) v Mark Harris (R)Mark Harris (R)R+10R+14.897% R
Tennessee 8Heidi Kuhn (D) v David Kustoff (R)David Kustoff (R)R+10R+14.897% R
California 5Michael Masuda (D) v Tom McClintock (R)Tom McClintock (R)R+10R+14.897% R
New York 11Michael DeCillis (D) v Nicole Malliotakis (R)Nicole Malliotakis (R)R+10R+14.897% R
Ohio 14Maria Jukic (D) v David Joyce (R)David Joyce (R)R+10R+14.897% R
Texas 27Tanya Lloyd (D) v Michael Cloud (R)Michael Cloud (R)R+10R+14.897% R
Kansas 2Don Coover (D) v Derek Schmidt (R)Derek Schmidt (R)R+10R+14.898% R
Nevada 1Dina Titus (D) v Carrie Buck (R)Dina Titus (D)D+2D+15.298% D
New Jersey 9Nellie Pou (D) v Rosie Pino (R)Nellie Pou (D)D+2D+15.298% D
California 13Adam Gray (D) v Kevin Lincoln (R)Adam Gray (D)D+2D+15.298% D
Ohio 13Emilia Sykes (D) v Carey Coleman (R)Emilia Sykes (D)D+2D+15.298% D
Florida 3Seth Harp (D) v Kat Cammack (R)Kat Cammack (R)R+10R+14.898% R
Florida 5Rachel Grage (D) v John Rutherford (R)John Rutherford (R)R+10R+14.898% R
Minnesota 6Doug Chapin (D) v Tom Emmer (R)Tom Emmer (R)R+10R+14.898% R
New Hampshire 2Maggie Goodlander (D) v Lily Tang Williams (R)Maggie Goodlander (D)D+2D+15.298% D
New Jersey 5Josh Gottheimer (D) v Sean Kirrane (R)Josh Gottheimer (D)D+2D+15.298% D
New York 23Aaron Gies (D) v Nick Langworthy (R)Nick Langworthy (R)R+10R+14.898% R
Texas 17Casey Shepard (D) v Pete Sessions (R)Pete Sessions (R)R+10R+14.898% R
Kansas 3Sharice Davids (D) v Eric Jenkins (R)Sharice Davids (D)D+2D+15.298% D
Nevada 4Steven Horsford (D) v Cody Whipple (R)Steven Horsford (D)D+2D+15.298% D
New York 4Laura Gillen (D) v Jeanine Driscoll (R)Laura Gillen (D)D+2D+15.298% D
Virginia 7Eugene Vindman (D) v Doug Ollivant (R)Eugene Vindman (D)D+2D+15.298% D
New York 18Pat Ryan (D) v Jacqueline Auringer (R)Pat Ryan (D)D+2D+15.298% D
Georgia 11Chris Harden (D) v John Cowan (R)Barry Loudermilk (R), not runningR+12R+15.898% R
New York 24Alissa Ellman (D) v Claudia Tenney (R)Claudia Tenney (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Texas 6Danny Minton (D) v Jake Ellzey (R)Jake Ellzey (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Texas 31Justin Early (D) v John Carter (R)John Carter (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Pennsylvania 16Justin Wagner (D) v Mike Kelly (R)Mike Kelly (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Tennessee 7Darden Copeland (D) v Matt Van Epps (R)Matt Van Epps (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Texas 3Evan Hunt (D) v Keith Self (R)Keith Self (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Texas 12Angela Rodriguez Prilliman (D) v Craig Goldman (R)Craig Goldman (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Texas 26Steven Shook (D) v Brandon Gill (R)Brandon Gill (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Wisconsin 5Andrew Beck (D) v Scott Fitzgerald (R)Scott Fitzgerald (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Illinois 16Paul Nolley (D) v Darin LaHood (R)Darin LaHood (R)R+11R+16.899% R
New Mexico 3Teresa Leger Fernández (D) v Martin Zamora (R)Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)D+3D+17.299% D
Pennsylvania 11Nancy Mannion (D) v Lloyd Smucker (R)Lloyd Smucker (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Pennsylvania 17Chris Deluzio (D) v Tony Guy (R)Chris Deluzio (D)D+3D+17.299% D
Texas 25Dione Sims (D) v Roger Williams (R)Roger Williams (R)R+11R+16.899% R
California 45Derek Tran (D) v Chuong Vo (R)Derek Tran (D)D+3D+17.299% D
Connecticut 5Jahana Hayes (D) v Chris Shea (R)Jahana Hayes (D)D+3D+17.299% D
Georgia 7Tony Kozycki (D) v Rich McCormick (R)Rich McCormick (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Illinois 6Sean Casten (D) v Niki Conforti (R)Sean Casten (D)D+3D+17.299% D
Maryland 6April McClain Delaney (D) v Robin Ficker (R)April McClain Delaney (D)D+3D+17.299% D
Michigan 1Callie Barr (D) v Jack Bergman (R)Jack Bergman (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Tennessee 4Victoria Broderick (D) v Scott DesJarlais (R)Scott DesJarlais (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Washington 8Kim Schrier (D) v Spencer Meline (R)Kim Schrier (D)D+3D+17.299% D
South Carolina 4Courtney McClain (D) v William Timmons (R)William Timmons (R)R+11R+16.899% R
Illinois 17Eric Sorensen (D) v Dillan Vancil (R)Eric Sorensen (D)D+3D+17.299% D
Illinois 14Lauren Underwood (D) v James Marter (R)Lauren Underwood (D)D+3D+17.299% D
Illinois 8Melissa Bean (D) v Jennifer Davis (R)Raja Krishnamoorthi (D), not runningD+5D+18.299% D
Ohio 5Brian Shaver (D) v Bob Latta (R)Bob Latta (R)R+12R+18.899% R
Tennessee 6Mike Croley (D) v Johnny Garrett (R)John Rose (R), not runningR+13R+17.899% R
Texas 4Jason Pearce (D) v Pat Fallon (R)Pat Fallon (R)R+12R+18.899% R
Texas 8Laura Jones (D) v Jessica Hart Steinmann (R)Morgan Luttrell (R), not runningR+13R+17.899% R
South Carolina 7John Vincent (D) v Russell Fry (R)Russell Fry (R)R+12R+18.899% R
Texas 14Thurman Bartie (D) v Randy Weber (R)Randy Weber (R)R+12R+18.899% R
Kansas 4Katy Tyndell (D) v Ron Estes (R)Ron Estes (R)R+12R+18.899% R
Virginia 6Beth Macy (D) v Ben Cline (R)Ben Cline (R)R+12R+18.899% R
Texas 36Rhonda Hart (D) v Brian Babin (R)Brian Babin (R)R+12R+18.899% R
Arizona 4Greg Stanton (D) v Zuhdi Jasser (R)Greg Stanton (D)D+4D+19.299% D
Michigan 3Hillary Scholten (D) v Terri DeBoer (R)Hillary Scholten (D)D+4D+19.299% D
Oregon 5Janelle Bynum (D) v Patti Adair (R)Janelle Bynum (D)D+4D+19.299% D
California 25Raul Ruiz (D) v Joe Males (R)Raul Ruiz (D)D+4D+19.2over 99% D
Connecticut 2Joe Courtney (D) v George Austin (R)Joe Courtney (D)D+4D+19.2over 99% D
Florida 19Victor Arias (D) v Jim Schwartzel (R)Byron Donalds (R), not runningR+14R+19.8over 99% R
Georgia 2Sanford Bishop (D) v Matt Day (R)Sanford Bishop (D)D+4D+19.2over 99% D
New York 22John Mannion (D) v Kailee Buller (R)John Mannion (D)D+4D+19.2over 99% D
Rhode Island 2Seth Magaziner (D) v Vic Mellor (R)Seth Magaziner (D)D+4D+19.2over 99% D
California 1Mike McGuire (D) v James Gallagher (R)James Gallagher (R)D+7D+19.2over 99% D
Michigan 5Christian Vukasovich (D) v Tim Walberg (R)Tim Walberg (R)R+13R+20.8over 99% R
Missouri 3Bethany Mann (D) v Bob Onder (R)Bob Onder (R)R+13R+20.8over 99% R
Arkansas 3Robb Ryerse (D) v Steve Womack (R)Steve Womack (R)R+13R+20.8over 99% R
California 21Jim Costa (D) v Kyle Kirkland (R)Jim Costa (D)D+5D+21.2over 99% D
Idaho 2Ellie Gilbreath (D) v Mike Simpson (R)Mike Simpson (R)R+13R+20.8over 99% R
Illinois 13Nikki Budzinski (D) v Jeff Wilson (R)Nikki Budzinski (D)D+5D+21.2over 99% D
Indiana 2Jamee Decio (D) v Rudy Yakym (R)Rudy Yakym (R)R+13R+20.8over 99% R
New Jersey 3Herb Conaway (D) v Michael McGuire (R)Herb Conaway (D)D+5D+21.2over 99% D
New Jersey 11Analilia Mejia (D) v Joe Hathaway (R)Analilia Mejia (D)D+5D+21.2over 99% D
California 3Ami Bera (D) v Robb Tucker (R)Ami Bera Redistricted from the 6th district (D)D+6D+23.2over 99% D
Florida 6Eric Yonce (D) v Randy Fine (R)Randy Fine (R)R+14R+22.8over 99% R
Illinois 11Bill Foster (D) v Jeff Walter (R)Bill Foster (D)D+6D+23.2over 99% D
Iowa 4David Dawson (D) v Chris McGowan (R)Randy Feenstra (R), not runningR+15R+21.8over 99% R
New Jersey 6Frank Pallone (D) v Hillary Herzig (R)Frank Pallone (D)D+5D+21.2over 99% D
Oregon 2Chris Beck (D) v Cliff Bentz (R)Cliff Bentz (R)R+14R+22.8over 99% R
Pennsylvania 6Chrissy Houlahan (D) v Marty Young (R)Chrissy Houlahan (D)D+6D+23.2over 99% D
Virginia 10Suhas Subramanyam (D) v Dave Beckwith (R)Suhas Subramanyam (D)D+6D+23.2over 99% D
Alabama 5Andrew Sneed (D) v Dale Strong (R)Dale Strong (R)R+15R+24.8over 99% R
Georgia 3Maura Keller (D) v Brian Jack (R)Brian Jack (R)R+15R+24.8over 99% R
Indiana 3Kelly Thompson (D) v Marlin Stutzman (R)Marlin Stutzman (R)R+16R+26.8over 99% R
Mississippi 3Michael Chiaradio (D) v Michael Guest (R)Michael Guest (R)R+14R+22.8over 99% R
Montana 2Brian Miller (D) v Troy Downing (R)Troy Downing (R)R+15R+24.8over 99% R
New Jersey 4Rachel Peace (D) v Chris Smith (R)Chris Smith (R)R+14R+22.8over 99% R
Ohio 12Jerrad Christian (D) v Troy Balderson (R)Troy Balderson (R)R+15R+24.8over 99% R
South Dakota at-largeNikki Gronli (D) v Marty Jackley (R)Dusty Johnson (R), not runningR+15R+21.8over 99% R
Utah 2Peter Crosby (D) v Blake Moore (R)Blake Moore Redistricted from the 1st district (R)R+15R+24.8over 99% R
California 27George Whitesides (D) v Jason Gibbs (R)George T. Whitesides (D)D+6D+23.2over 99% D
California 35Norma Torres (D) v Mike Cargile (R)Norma Torres (D)D+6D+23.2over 99% D
California 38Hilda Solis (D) v Pedro Casas (R)OpenD+8D+24.2over 99% D
California 47Dave Min (D) v Jenny Le Roux (R)Dave Min (D)D+6D+23.2over 99% D
Massachusetts 9Bill Keating (D) v Tyler MacAllister (R)Bill Keating (D)D+6D+23.2over 99% D
New York 6Grace Meng (D) v Joseph Chou (R)Grace Meng (D)D+6D+23.2over 99% D
Oregon 4Val Hoyle (D) v Monique DeSpain (R)Val Hoyle (D)D+6D+23.2over 99% D
Oregon 6Andrea Salinas (D) v David Russ (R)Andrea Salinas (D)D+6D+23.2over 99% D
Alabama 1Clyde Jones Jr. (D) v Jerry Carl (R)OpenR+17R+25.8over 99% R
Alabama 3Lee McInnis (D) v Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)R+23R+40.8over 99% R
Alabama 4Amanda Pusczek (D) v Robert Aderholt (R)Robert Aderholt (R)R+33R+60.8over 99% R
Alabama 6Maurice Mercer (D) v Gary Palmer (R)Gary Palmer (R)R+17R+28.8over 99% R
Alabama 7Terri Sewell (D) v Ammie Akin (R)Terri Sewell (D)D+10D+31.2over 99% D
Arizona 3Yassamin Ansari (D)Yassamin Ansari (D)D+22–Certain D
Arizona 7Adelita Grijalva (D) v Daniel Butierez (R)Adelita Grijalva (D)D+13D+37.2over 99% D
Arizona 9Dani Sterbinsky (D) v Paul Gosar (R)Paul Gosar (R)R+15R+24.8over 99% R
Arkansas 1Terri Green (D) v Rick Crawford (R)Rick Crawford (R)R+23R+40.8over 99% R
Arkansas 4James Russell (D) v Bruce Westerman (R)Bruce Westerman (R)R+20R+34.8over 99% R
California 2Jared Huffman (D) v Robin Littau (R)Jared Huffman (D)D+13D+37.2over 99% D
California 4Eric Jones, Mike Thompson (D)Mike Thompson (D)D+8–Certain D
California 6Richard Pan (D)Kevin Kiley Redistricted from the 3rd district (I)D+5–Certain D
California 7Doris Matsui, Mai Vang (D)Doris Matsui (D)D+7–Certain D
California 8John Garamendi (D) v Rudy Recile (R)John Garamendi (D)D+19D+49.2over 99% D
California 9Josh Harder (D) v John McBride (R)Josh Harder (D)D+8D+27.2over 99% D
California 10Mark DeSaulnier (D) v Jeff Frese (R)Mark DeSaulnier (D)D+18D+47.2over 99% D
California 11Connie Chan, Scott Wiener (D)Nancy Pelosi (D), not runningD+36–Certain D
California 12Jamie Joyce, Lateefah Simon (D)Lateefah Simon (D)D+39–Certain D
California 14Melissa Hernandez, Aisha Wahab (D)Aisha Wahab (D)D+19–Certain D
California 15Kevin Mullin (D) v Charles Hoelter (R)Kevin Mullin (D)D+26D+63.2over 99% D
California 16Sam Liccardo (D) v Peter Soulé (R)Sam Liccardo (D)D+25D+61.2over 99% D
California 17Ro Khanna (D) v Ritesh Tandon (R)Ro Khanna (D)D+21D+53.2over 99% D
California 18Zoe Lofgren (D) v Shane Lewis (R)Zoe Lofgren (D)D+16D+43.2over 99% D
California 19Jimmy Panetta (D) v Peter Coe Verbica (R)Jimmy Panetta (D)D+18D+47.2over 99% D
California 20Sandra Van Scotter (D) v Vince Fong (R)Vince Fong (R)R+16R+26.8over 99% R
California 24Salud Carbajal (D) v Bob Smith (R)Salud Carbajal (D)D+13D+37.2over 99% D
California 26Jacqui Irwin (D) v Sam Gallucci (R)Julia Brownley (D), not runningD+9D+26.2over 99% D
California 28Judy Chu (D) v April Verlato (R)Judy Chu (D)D+14D+39.2over 99% D
California 29Angelica Dueñas, Luz Rivas (D)Luz Rivas (D)D+19–Certain D
California 30Laura Friedman (D) v Scott Meyers (R)Laura Friedman (D)D+21D+53.2over 99% D
California 31Gil Cisneros (D) v Eric Ching (R)Gil Cisneros (D)D+8D+27.2over 99% D
California 32Brad Sherman (D) v Larry Thompson (R)Brad Sherman (D)D+14D+39.2over 99% D
California 33Pete Aguilar (D) v Stephanie Vargas (R)Pete Aguilar (D)D+7D+25.2over 99% D
California 34Jimmy Gomez, Angela Gonzales-Torres (D)Jimmy Gomez (D)D+28–Certain D
California 36Ted Lieu (D) v Houston Brignano (R)Ted Lieu (D)D+21D+53.2over 99% D
California 37Sydney Kamlager-Dove, Samantha Mota (D)Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)D+33–Certain D
California 39Mark Takano (D) v Steve Manos (R)Mark Takano (D)D+7D+25.2over 99% D
California 40Ken Calvert, Young Kim (R)Young Kim (R)R+6–Certain R
California 41Linda Sánchez (D) v Mitch Clemmons (R)Linda Sánchez Redistricted from the 38th district (D)D+9D+29.2over 99% D
California 42Robert Garcia (D) v Brian Burley (R)Robert Garcia (D)D+8D+27.2over 99% D
California 43Maxine Waters (D) v Cristian Morales (R)Maxine Waters (D)D+27D+65.2over 99% D
California 44Nanette Barragán (D) v Genevieve Angel (R)Nanette Barragán (D)D+20D+51.2over 99% D
California 46Lou Correa (D) v David Pan (R)Lou Correa (D)D+10D+31.2over 99% D
California 49Mike Levin (D) v Armen Kurdian (R)Mike Levin (D)D+7D+25.2over 99% D
California 50Scott Peters (D) v Steve Cohen (R)Scott Peters (D)D+10D+31.2over 99% D
California 51Sara Jacobs (D) v Ricardo Cabrera (R)Sara Jacobs (D)D+10D+31.2over 99% D
California 52Juan Vargas (D) v Jeff Belle (R)Juan Vargas (D)D+11D+33.2over 99% D
Colorado 1Melat Kiros (D) v Christy Peterson (R)Diana DeGette (D), not runningD+29D+66.2over 99% D
Colorado 2Joe Neguse (D) v Kelley Dennison (R)Joe Neguse (D)D+20D+51.2over 99% D
Colorado 6Jason Crow (D) v Jason Clark (R)Jason Crow (D)D+11D+33.2over 99% D
Colorado 7Brittany Pettersen (D) v Tim Bennett (R)Brittany Pettersen (D)D+8D+27.2over 99% D
Connecticut 1Luke Bronin (D) v Amy Chai (R)John B. Larson (D), not runningD+12D+32.2over 99% D
Connecticut 3Rosa DeLauro (D) v Chris Lancia (R)Rosa DeLauro (D)D+8D+27.2over 99% D
Connecticut 4Jim Himes (D) v Michael Goldstein (R)Jim Himes (D)D+13D+37.2over 99% D
Delaware at-largeSarah McBride (D) v Joseph Arminio (R)Sarah McBride (D)D+8D+27.2over 99% D
Florida 1Gay Valimont (D) v Jimmy Patronis (R)Jimmy Patronis (R)R+18R+30.8over 99% R
Florida 10Maxwell Frost (D)Maxwell Frost (D)D+13–Certain D
Florida 20Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) v Brent Andersen (R)OpenD+20D+48.2over 99% D
Florida 23Lois Frankel (D) v Deborah Adeimy (R)Lois Frankel Redistricted from the 22nd district (D)D+9D+29.2over 99% D
Florida 24Oliver Gilbert (D) v Te Mayonna Brown (R)Frederica Wilson (D), not runningD+22D+52.2over 99% D
Georgia 4Hank Johnson (D) v James Duffie (R)Hank Johnson (D)D+27D+65.2over 99% D
Georgia 5Nikema Williams (D) v John Oscar Salvesen (R)Nikema Williams (D)D+36D+83.2over 99% D
Georgia 6Lucy McBath (D) v Kevin Martin (R)Lucy McBath (D)D+25D+61.2over 99% D
Georgia 8Kelly Esti (D) v Austin Scott (R)Austin Scott (R)R+15R+24.8over 99% R
Georgia 9Caitlyn Gegen (D) v Andrew Clyde (R)Andrew Clyde (R)R+17R+28.8over 99% R
Georgia 13Jasmine Clark (D) v Jonathan Chavez (R)Everton Blair (D), not runningD+21D+50.2over 99% D
Georgia 14Shawn Harris (D) v Clay Fuller (R)Clay Fuller (R)R+19R+32.8over 99% R
Hawaii 1Ed Case (D) v Adriel Lam (R)Ed Case (D)D+13D+37.2over 99% D
Hawaii 2Jill Tokuda (D) v Brenton Awa (R)Jill Tokuda (D)D+12D+35.2over 99% D
Idaho 1Kaylee Peterson (D) v Russ Fulcher (R)Russ Fulcher (R)R+22R+38.8over 99% R
Illinois 1Jonathan Jackson (D) v Christian Maxwell (R)Jonathan Jackson (D)D+18D+47.2over 99% D
Illinois 2Donna Miller (D) v Michael Noack (R)Robin Kelly (D), not runningD+18D+44.2over 99% D
Illinois 3Delia Ramirez (D) v Angel Oakley (R)Delia Ramirez (D)D+17D+45.2over 99% D
Illinois 4Patty Garcia (D) v Lupe Castillo (R)Chuy García (D), not runningD+17D+42.2over 99% D
Illinois 5Mike Quigley (D) v Tommy Hanson (R)Mike Quigley (D)D+19D+49.2over 99% D
Illinois 7La Shawn Ford (D) v Chad Koppie (R)Danny Davis (D), not runningD+34D+76.2over 99% D
Illinois 9Daniel Biss (D) v John Elleson (R)Jan Schakowsky (D), not runningD+19D+46.2over 99% D
Illinois 10Brad Schneider (D) v Carl Lambrecht (R)Brad Schneider (D)D+12D+35.2over 99% D
Illinois 12Julie Fortier (D) v Mike Bost (R)Mike Bost (R)R+22R+38.8over 99% R
Illinois 15Jennifer Todd (D) v Mary Miller (R)Mary Miller (R)R+20R+34.8over 99% R
Indiana 4Drew Cox (D) v Jim Baird (R)Jim Baird (R)R+15R+24.8over 99% R
Indiana 6Cinde Wirth (D) v Jefferson Shreve (R)Jefferson Shreve (R)R+16R+26.8over 99% R
Indiana 7André Carson (D) v Patrick McAuley (R)André Carson (D)D+21D+53.2over 99% D
Indiana 8Mary Allen (D) v Mark Messmer (R)Mark Messmer (R)R+18R+30.8over 99% R
Indiana 9Brad Meyer (D) v Erin Houchin (R)Erin Houchin (R)R+15R+24.8over 99% R
Kansas 1Lauren Reinhold (D) v Tracey Mann (R)Tracey Mann (R)R+16R+26.8over 99% R
Kentucky 1Drew Williams (D) v James Comer (R)James Comer (R)R+23R+40.8over 99% R
Kentucky 2Megan Wingfield (D) v Brett Guthrie (R)Brett Guthrie (R)R+20R+34.8over 99% R
Kentucky 3Morgan McGarvey (D) v Maria Rodriquez (R)Morgan McGarvey (D)D+10D+31.2over 99% D
Kentucky 4Melissa Strange (D) v Ed Gallrein (R)Thomas Massie (R), not runningR+18R+27.8over 99% R
Kentucky 5Ned Pillersdorf (D) v Hal Rogers (R)Hal Rogers (R)R+32R+58.8over 99% R
Louisiana 1Lauren Jewett (D) v Randall Arrington, Steve Scalise (R)Steve Scalise (R)R+20R+34.8over 99% R
Louisiana 2Troy Carter, Renada Collins (D) v Peter Williams (R)Troy Carter (D)D+25D+61.2over 99% D
Louisiana 3John Day, Priscilla Gonzalez, Tia LeBrun, Caleb Walker (D) v Kate Cotten, Clay Higgins (R)Clay Higgins (R)R+18R+30.8over 99% R
Louisiana 4Conrad Cable, Matt Gromlich (D) v Gordon Heslop, Mike Johnson, Mike Nichols (R)Mike Johnson (R)R+17R+28.8over 99% R
Louisiana 5Dan McKay, Patricia Moore, Antonio Wilson (D) v Stewart Cathey Jr., Misti Cordell, Omar Dantzler, Michael Echols, Gabe Firment, Austin Magee (R)Julia Letlow (R), not runningR+17R+25.8over 99% R
Louisiana 6Pat Forbes, Lindsay Garcia (D) v Monique Appeaning, Larry Davis, Rick Edmonds, Chris Johnson, Michael Mebruer, Blake Miguez, Stephen Wagley (R)Cleo Fields (D), not runningR+16R+23.8over 99% R
Maine 1Chellie Pingree (D) v Ronald Russell (R)Chellie Pingree (D)D+11D+33.2over 99% D
Maryland 2Johnny Olszewski (D) v Dave Wallace (R)Johnny Olszewski (D)D+10D+31.2over 99% D
Maryland 3Sarah Elfreth (D) v Berney Flowers (R)Sarah Elfreth (D)D+12D+35.2over 99% D
Maryland 4Glenn Ivey (D) v George McDermott (R)Glenn Ivey (D)D+39D+89.2over 99% D
Maryland 5Adrian Boafo (D) v Chris Chaffee (R)Steny Hoyer (D), not runningD+17D+42.2over 99% D
Maryland 7Kweisi Mfume (D) v Scott Collier (R)Kweisi Mfume (D)D+31D+73.2over 99% D
Maryland 8Jamie Raskin (D) v Cheryl Riley (R)Jamie Raskin (D)D+30D+71.2over 99% D
Massachusetts 1Richard Neal (D)Richard Neal (D)D+8–Certain D
Massachusetts 2Jim McGovern (D)Jim McGovern (D)D+13–Certain D
Massachusetts 3Lori Trahan (D) v Gary Grossi (R)Lori Trahan (D)D+11D+33.2over 99% D
Massachusetts 4Jake Auchincloss (D) v Thomas Stalcup (R)Jake Auchincloss (D)D+11D+33.2over 99% D
Massachusetts 5Katherine Clark (D)Katherine Clark (D)D+24–Certain D
Massachusetts 6Dan Koh (D) v Micah Jones (R)Seth Moulton (D), not runningD+11D+30.2over 99% D
Massachusetts 7Ayanna Pressley (D)Ayanna Pressley (D)D+34–Certain D
Massachusetts 8Stephen Lynch (D) v Robert Burke (R)Stephen Lynch (D)D+15D+41.2over 99% D
Michigan 2Ben Ambrose (D) v John Moolenaar (R)John Moolenaar (R)R+15R+24.8over 99% R
Michigan 6Debbie Dingell (D) v Heather Smiley (R)Debbie Dingell (D)D+12D+35.2over 99% D
Michigan 9Ray Pooley (D) v Lisa McClain (R)Lisa McClain (R)R+16R+26.8over 99% R
Michigan 11Jeremy Moss (D) v Ethan Baker (R)Haley Stevens (D), not runningD+9D+26.2over 99% D
Michigan 12Rashida Tlaib (D) v James Hooper (R)Rashida Tlaib (D)D+21D+53.2over 99% D
Michigan 13Donavan McKinney (D) v T. P. Nykoriak (R)Shri Thanedar (D), not runningD+22D+52.2over 99% D
Minnesota 3Kelly Morrison (D) v Tyler Bass (R)Kelly Morrison (D)D+11D+33.2over 99% D
Minnesota 4Betty McCollum (D) v Paul Wikstrom (R)Betty McCollum (D)D+18D+47.2over 99% D
Minnesota 5Ilhan Omar (D) v John Nagel (R)Ilhan Omar (D)D+32D+75.2over 99% D
Minnesota 7Erik Osberg (D) v Michelle Fischbach (R)Michelle Fischbach (R)R+18R+30.8over 99% R
Mississippi 1Cliff Johnson (D) v Trent Kelly (R)Trent Kelly (R)R+18R+30.8over 99% R
Mississippi 2Bennie Thompson (D) v Ron Eller (R)Bennie Thompson (D)D+11D+33.2over 99% D
Mississippi 4Jeffrey Hulum III (D) v Mike Ezell (R)Mike Ezell (R)R+21R+36.8over 99% R
Missouri 1Wesley Bell (D) v Paul Berry (R)Wesley Bell (D)D+29D+69.2over 99% D
Missouri 4Jordan Herrera (D) v Mark Alford (R)Mark Alford (R)R+21R+36.8over 99% R
Missouri 5Emanuel Cleaver (D) v Rick Brattin (R)Emanuel Cleaver (D)D+12D+35.2over 99% D
Missouri 6Josh Smead (D) v Chris Stigall (R)Sam Graves (R), not runningR+19R+29.8over 99% R
Missouri 7Missi Hesketh (D) v Eric Burlison (R)Eric Burlison (R)R+21R+36.8over 99% R
Missouri 8Chris Reichard (D) v Jason Smith (R)Jason Smith (R)R+27R+48.8over 99% R
Nebraska 3Becky Stille (D) v Adrian Smith (R)Adrian Smith (R)R+27R+48.8over 99% R
New Jersey 1Donald Norcross (D) v Damon Galdo (R)Donald Norcross (D)D+10D+31.2over 99% D
New Jersey 8Rob Menendez (D)Rob Menendez (D)D+15–Certain D
New Jersey 10LaMonica McIver (D) v Carmen Bucco (R)LaMonica McIver (D)D+27D+65.2over 99% D
New Jersey 12Adam Hamawy (D) v Gregg Mele (R)Bonnie Watson Coleman (D), not runningD+13D+34.2over 99% D
New Mexico 1Melanie Stansbury (D) v Didi Okpareke (R)Melanie Stansbury (D)D+7D+25.2over 99% D
New York 5Gregory Meeks (D) v George Marsh (R)Gregory Meeks (D)D+24D+59.2over 99% D
New York 7Claire Valdez (D) v Melvin Rivera (R)Nydia Velázquez (D), not runningD+25D+58.2over 99% D
New York 8Hakeem Jeffries (D) v Lewis Mizrahi (R)Hakeem Jeffries (D)D+24D+59.2over 99% D
New York 9Yvette Clarke (D) v Joel Azumah (R)Yvette Clarke (D)D+22D+55.2over 99% D
New York 10Brad Lander (D) v Jennifer Moore (R)Dan Goldman (D), not runningD+32D+72.2over 99% D
New York 12Micah Lasher (D) v Caroline Shinkle (R)Jerry Nadler (D), not runningD+33D+74.2over 99% D
New York 13Darializa Avila Chevalier (D) v Jomo Williams (R)Adriano Espaillat (D), not runningD+32D+72.2over 99% D
New York 14Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) v Diamant Hysenaj (R)Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)D+19D+49.2over 99% D
New York 15Ritchie Torres (D) v Stylo Sapaskis (R)Ritchie Torres (D)D+27D+65.2over 99% D
New York 16George Latimer (D) v Joseph Cinquemani (R)George Latimer (D)D+18D+47.2over 99% D
New York 20Paul Tonko (D) v Ralph Ambrosio (R)Paul Tonko (D)D+8D+27.2over 99% D
New York 25Joseph Morelle (D) v Virginia McIntyre (R)Joseph Morelle (D)D+10D+31.2over 99% D
New York 26Tim Kennedy (D) v Dennis Hannon (R)Tim Kennedy (D)D+11D+33.2over 99% D
North Carolina 2Deborah Ross (D) v Eugene Douglass (R)Deborah Ross (D)D+17D+45.2over 99% D
North Carolina 4Valerie Foushee (D) v Max Ganorkar (R)Valerie Foushee (D)D+23D+57.2over 99% D
North Carolina 12Alma Adams (D) v Jack Codiga (R)Alma Adams (D)D+24D+59.2over 99% D
North Dakota at-largeTrygve Hammer (D) v Julie Fedorchak (R)Julie Fedorchak (R)R+18R+30.8over 99% R
Ohio 2Jennifer Mazzuckelli (D) v David Taylor (R)David Taylor (R)R+21R+36.8over 99% R
Ohio 3Joyce Beatty (D) v Cleophus Dulaney (R)Joyce Beatty (D)D+21D+53.2over 99% D
Ohio 4Joshua Kolasinski (D) v Jim Jordan (R)Jim Jordan (R)R+21R+36.8over 99% R
Ohio 6Elizabeth Kirtley (D) v Michael Rulli (R)Michael Rulli (R)R+17R+28.8over 99% R
Ohio 11Shontel Brown (D) v Mike Kirchner (R)Shontel Brown (D)D+28D+67.2over 99% D
Oklahoma 2Brandon Wade (D) v Josh Brecheen (R)Josh Brecheen (R)R+28R+50.8over 99% R
Oklahoma 3Suzie Byrd (D) v Frank Lucas (R)Frank Lucas (R)R+23R+40.8over 99% R
Oklahoma 4Mitchell Jacob (D) v Tom Cole (R)Tom Cole (R)R+17R+28.8over 99% R
Oregon 1Suzanne Bonamici (D) v Barbara Kahl (R)Suzanne Bonamici (D)D+20D+51.2over 99% D
Oregon 3Maxine Dexter (D) v Loran Ayles (R)Maxine Dexter (D)D+24D+59.2over 99% D
Pennsylvania 2Brendan Boyle (D) v Jessica Arriaga (R)Brendan Boyle (D)D+19D+49.2over 99% D
Pennsylvania 3Chris Rabb (D)Dwight Evans (D), not runningD+40–Certain D
Pennsylvania 4Madeleine Dean (D) v Aurora Stuski (R)Madeleine Dean (D)D+8D+27.2over 99% D
Pennsylvania 5Mary Gay Scanlon (D) v Nicholas Manganaro (R)Mary Gay Scanlon (D)D+15D+41.2over 99% D
Pennsylvania 9Rachel Wallace (D) v Dan Meuser (R)Dan Meuser (R)R+19R+32.8over 99% R
Pennsylvania 12Summer Lee (D) v James Hayes (R)Summer Lee (D)D+10D+31.2over 99% D
Pennsylvania 13Beth Farnham (D) v John Joyce (R)John Joyce (R)R+23R+40.8over 99% R
Pennsylvania 14Alan Bradstock (D) v Guy Reschenthaler (R)Guy Reschenthaler (R)R+17R+28.8over 99% R
Pennsylvania 15Ray Bilger (D) v Glenn Thompson (R)Glenn Thompson (R)R+19R+32.8over 99% R
Rhode Island 1Gabe Amo (D) v Kellie Keenan (R)Gabe Amo (D)D+12D+35.2over 99% D
South Carolina 3Eunice Lehmacher (D) v Sheri Biggs (R)Sheri Biggs (R)R+21R+36.8over 99% R
South Carolina 6Jim Clyburn (D) v John Peterson (R)Jim Clyburn (D)D+13D+37.2over 99% D
Tennessee 1Kristi Burke (D) v Diana Harshbarger (R)Diana Harshbarger (R)R+29R+52.8over 99% R
Tennessee 2Michaela Barnett (D) v Tim Burchett (R)Tim Burchett (R)R+17R+28.8over 99% R
Tennessee 3Anna Golladay (D) v Chuck Fleischmann (R)Chuck Fleischmann (R)R+18R+30.8over 99% R
Texas 1Yolanda Prince (D) v Nathaniel Moran (R)Nathaniel Moran (R)R+24R+42.8over 99% R
Texas 7Lizzie Fletcher (D) v Alexander Hale (R)Lizzie Fletcher (D)D+13D+37.2over 99% D
Texas 11Claire Reynolds (D) v August Pfluger (R)August Pfluger (R)R+17R+28.8over 99% R
Texas 13Mark Nair (D) v Ronny Jackson (R)Ronny Jackson (R)R+23R+40.8over 99% R
Texas 16Veronica Escobar (D) v Adam Bauman (R)Veronica Escobar (D)D+11D+33.2over 99% D
Texas 18Christian Menefee (D) v Ronald Whitfield (R)Christian Menefee (D)D+29D+69.2over 99% D
Texas 19Kyle Rable (D) v Tom Sell (R)Jodey Arrington (R), not runningR+25R+41.8over 99% R
Texas 20Joaquin Castro (D) v Edgardo Rafael Baez (R)Joaquin Castro (D)D+16D+43.2over 99% D
Texas 29Sylvia Garcia (D) v Martha Fierro (R)Sylvia Garcia (D)D+17D+45.2over 99% D
Texas 30Frederick Haynes III (D) v Everett Jackson (R)OpenD+25D+58.2over 99% D
Texas 33Colin Allred (D) v Patrick Gillespie (R)Jasmine Crockett Redistricted from the 30th district (D), not runningD+18D+44.2over 99% D
Texas 37Greg Casar (D) v Lauren Peña (R)Lloyd Doggett (D), not runningD+30D+68.2over 99% D
Utah 1Ben McAdams (D) v Riley Owen (R)OpenD+12D+32.2over 99% D
Utah 3Kent Udell (D) v Celeste Maloy (R)Celeste Maloy Redistricted from the 2nd district (R)R+21R+36.8over 99% R
Utah 4Jonny Larsen (D) v Mike Kennedy (R)Burgess Owens (R), not runningR+17R+25.8over 99% R
Vermont at-largeBecca Balint (D) v Gerald Malloy (R)Becca Balint (D)D+17D+45.2over 99% D
Virginia 3Bobby Scott (D) v Edwin Rivera (R)Bobby Scott (D)D+18D+47.2over 99% D
Virginia 4Jennifer McClellan (D) v Robert Murray (R)Jennifer McClellan (D)D+17D+45.2over 99% D
Virginia 8Don Beyer (D) v Tony Sabio (R)Don Beyer (D)D+26D+63.2over 99% D
Virginia 9Joy Powers (D) v Morgan Griffith (R)Morgan Griffith (R)R+22R+38.8over 99% R
Virginia 11James Walkinshaw (D) v Arthur Purves (R)James Walkinshaw (D)D+18D+47.2over 99% D
Washington 1Suzan DelBene (D) v Mary Silva (R)Suzan DelBene (D)D+15D+41.2over 99% D
Washington 2Rick Larsen (D) v Edwin Feller (R)Rick Larsen (D)D+12D+35.2over 99% D
Washington 6Emily Randall (D) v Teresa Fox (R)Emily Randall (D)D+10D+31.2over 99% D
Washington 7Pramila Jayapal (D) v Nirav Sheth (R)Pramila Jayapal (D)D+39D+89.2over 99% D
Washington 9Adam Smith (D) v Doug Basler (R)Adam Smith (D)D+22D+55.2over 99% D
Washington 10Marilyn Strickland (D) v Chris Chung (R)Marilyn Strickland (D)D+9D+29.2over 99% D
West Virginia 1Vince George (D) v Carol Miller (R)Carol Miller (R)R+22R+38.8over 99% R
West Virginia 2Ace Parsi (D) v Riley Moore (R)Riley Moore (R)R+20R+34.8over 99% R
Wisconsin 2Mark Pocan (D)Mark Pocan (D)D+21–Certain D
Wisconsin 4Gwen Moore (D) v Tim Rogers (R)Gwen Moore (D)D+26D+63.2over 99% D
Wyoming at-largeLisa Kinney (D) v Chuck Gray (R)Harriet Hageman (R), not runningR+23R+37.8over 99% R

04Governors

Democrats are projected to hold 28 of 50 governorships after the election (90% range 23 to 33), counting the 6 Democratic and 8 Republican governors not up this year.


StateMatchupPollsProjectedChanceForecasters
KansasR+8 · Laura Kelly (D), not runningCindy Holscher (D) v Ty Masterson (R)D+0.59 polls, latest Nov 1R+0.150% RTilt RCook: Toss-up
GeorgiaR+1 · Brian Kemp (R), not runningKeisha Lance Bottoms (D) v Rick Jackson (R)D+0.38 polls, latest Nov 2D+0.654% DTilt DCook: Toss-up
VermontD+17 · Phil Scott (R)Amanda Janoo (D) v Phil Scott (R)D+2.93 polls, latest Oct 31R+1.358% RLean RCook: Likely R
NevadaR+1 · Joe Lombardo (R)Aaron Ford (D) v Joe Lombardo (R)D+1.95 polls, latest Oct 28D+1.559% DToss-upCook: Toss-up
TexasR+6 · Greg Abbott (R)Gina Hinojosa (D) v Greg Abbott (R)R+1.527 polls, latest Nov 2R+1.861% RLean RCook: Lean R
OregonD+8 · Tina Kotek (D)Tina Kotek (D) v Christine Drazan (R)D+2.34 polls, latest Oct 4D+3.570% DLean DCook: Lean D
FloridaR+5 · Ron DeSantis (R), not runningDavid Jolly (D) v Byron Donalds (R)R+3.624 polls, latest Nov 2R+3.772% RLean RCook: Lean R
WisconsinEVEN · Tony Evers (D), not runningDavid Crowley (D) v Tom Tiffany (R)D+4.74 polls, latest Nov 1D+4.273% DLean DCook: Lean D
OhioR+5 · Mike DeWine (R), not runningAmy Acton (D) v Vivek Ramaswamy (R)D+4.620 polls, latest Nov 1D+4.577% DLean DCook: Lean D
NebraskaR+10 · Jim Pillen (R)Lynne Walz (D) v Jim Pillen (R)R+5.010 polls, latest Oct 29R+5.581% RLikely RCook: Lean R
New HampshireD+2 · Kelly Ayotte (R)Cinde Warmington (D) v Kelly Ayotte (R)R+5.88 polls, latest Nov 1R+6.184% RLikely RCook: Likely R
IowaR+6 · Kim Reynolds (R), not runningRob Sand (D) v Zach Lahn (R)D+7.014 polls, latest Nov 1D+6.686% DLean DCook: Lean D
ArizonaR+2 · Katie Hobbs (D)Katie Hobbs (D) v Andy Biggs (R)D+7.010 polls, latest Oct 29D+7.087% DLikely DCook: Likely D
OklahomaR+17 · Kevin Stitt (R), not runningCyndi Munson (D) v Mike Mazzei (R)R+4.13 polls, latest Oct 13R+9.290% RLikely RCook: Likely R
MichiganEVEN · Gretchen Whitmer (D), not runningJocelyn Benson (D) v John James (R)D+8.415 polls, latest Nov 1D+8.091% DLikely DCook: Lean D
New MexicoD+4 · Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), not runningDeb Haaland (D) v Gregg Hull (R)D+6.93 polls, latest Nov 2D+10.895% DSafe DCook: Safe D
AlabamaR+15 · Kay Ivey (R), not runningDoug Jones (D) v Tommy Tuberville (R)R+7.74 polls, latest Oct 24R+12.196% RSafe RCook: Safe R
MaineD+4 · Janet Mills (D), not runningHannah Pingree (D) v Bobby Charles (R)D+10.114 polls, latest Nov 1D+11.497% DSafe DCook: Safe D
MinnesotaD+3 · Tim Walz (D), not runningAmy Klobuchar (D) v Lisa Demuth (R)D+11.29 polls, latest Nov 1D+12.398% DSafe DCook: Safe D
AlaskaR+6 · Mike Dunleavy (R), not runningJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) v Bernadette Wilson (R)D+18.25 polls, latest Nov 1D+13.698% DLean DCook: Lean D
South CarolinaR+8 · Henry McMaster (R), not runningJermaine Johnson (D) v Alan Wilson (R)R+11.28 polls, latest Nov 1R+13.399% RSafe RCook: Safe R
New YorkD+8 · Kathy Hochul (D)Kathy Hochul (D) v Bruce Blakeman (R)D+12.59 polls, latest Nov 1D+14.199% DSafe DCook: Safe D
TennesseeR+14 · Bill Lee (R), not runningJerri Green (D) v Marsha Blackburn (R)R+12.73 polls, latest Nov 2R+15.999% RSafe RCook: Safe R
ArkansasR+15 · Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)Fredrick Love (D) v Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)R+18.92 polls, latest Oct 13R+23.0over 99% RSafe RCook: Safe R
ConnecticutD+8 · Ned Lamont (D)Ned Lamont (D) v Ryan Fazio (R)D+16.25 polls, latest Oct 31D+18.1over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
HawaiiD+13 · Josh Green (D)Josh Green (D) v Gary Cordery (R)NoneD+25.0over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
South DakotaR+15 · Larry Rhoden (R)Dan Ahlers (D) v Larry Rhoden (R)R+16.32 polls, latest Oct 14R+20.6over 99% RSafe RCook: Safe R
WyomingR+23 · Mark Gordon (R), not runningKenneth Casner (D) v Eric Barlow (R)NoneR+25.0over 99% RSafe RCook: Safe R
IdahoR+18 · Brad Little (R)Terri Pickens (D) v Brad Little (R)R+18.33 polls, latest Oct 22R+21.0over 99% RSafe RCook: Safe R
ColoradoD+6 · Jared Polis (D), not runningPhil Weiser (D) v Victor Marx (R)D+20.33 polls, latest Nov 2D+21.3over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
IllinoisD+6 · JB Pritzker (D)JB Pritzker (D) v Darren Bailey (R)D+19.53 polls, latest Nov 2D+22.2over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
MarylandD+15 · Wes Moore (D)Wes Moore (D) v Dan Cox (R)NoneD+25.0over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
CaliforniaD+12 · Gavin Newsom (D), not runningXavier Becerra (D) v Steve Hilton (R)D+23.610 polls, latest Oct 31D+23.9over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
MassachusettsD+14 · Maura Healey (D)Maura Healey (D) v Mike Minogue (R)D+22.24 polls, latest Oct 31D+23.1over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
PennsylvaniaR+1 · Josh Shapiro (D)Josh Shapiro (D) v Stacy Garrity (R)D+24.65 polls, latest Nov 1D+24.7over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D
Rhode IslandD+8 · Dan McKee (D), not runningHelena Foulkes (D) v Aaron Guckian (R)D+41.53 polls, latest Oct 31D+34.9over 99% DSafe DCook: Safe D

05The Generic Ballot

The generic ballot asks which party voters would support for Congress. Its average sets the national environment for every race in the model: Democrats 51.7%, Republicans 43.6% (D+8.2) across 46 polls ending in the 30 days to November 2, 2026.

PollsterEndedSampleDem.Rep.Margin
John Zogby StrategiesNov 2, 20261,0015347D+6.0
Reuters/IpsosNov 2, 20261,2125244D+8.0
Focaldata/Financial TimesNov 1, 20262,0905245D+7.0
Hart Research Associates (D)/Public Opinion StrategiesOct 30, 20261,0005245D+7.0
YouGovOct 30, 20263,9155344D+9.0
Big Data PollOct 30, 20263,2145139D+12.0
I&I/TIPP InsightsOct 30, 20261,1585242D+10.0
ActiVoteOct 30, 20262,00053.546.5D+7.0
IpsosOct 28, 20261,2095044D+6.0
Tufts University/YouGovOct 27, 20264995240D+12.0
Emerson CollegeOct 26, 20261,0005242D+10.0
Harvard/Harris Poll/HarrisXOct 26, 2026–5248D+4.0
The Economist/YouGovOct 26, 20261,1235241D+11.0
Reuters/IpsosOct 26, 20261,1645344D+9.0
NPR/PBS/Marist UniversityOct 26, 2026–5244D+8.0

The 15 most recent of 371 generic ballot polls in the table, likely-voter results where a poll published more than one.

06How It Works

The starting point. Every race begins from a fundamentals estimate: the national generic ballot margin, plus twice the state's or district's Cook Partisan Voting Index (the PVI measures how much more Democratic or Republican a place votes than the country, in share of the two-party vote, so twice that is the gap in margin), plus 3 points for an incumbent running again. That is the whole estimate for House districts. For Senate races it is averaged with the forecasters' consensus rating turned into a margin (Toss-up 0, Tilt 2, Lean 4, Likely 8, Safe 25 points). Governor races start from the forecasters' rating alone, because voters split their tickets for governor far more often (a popular Republican governor can win easily in a Democratic state).

The polls. Senate and governor races with their own polls blend the polling average with that starting point; the more different pollsters have surveyed a race recently, the more the polls count, up to 85%. The averages weight newer polls and larger samples more, use the likely-voter result where a poll published more than one, and count each firm's older polls at half weight. Where an independent polls ahead of the Democrat, or no Democrat is running, the model treats the independent as the Republican's opponent.

The simulations. Each of the 10,000 simulated elections draws one national polling miss shared by every race (about 3 points of margin), so a bad year for one party is bad across the map, and then a separate local error for each race (larger where there are few or no polls). Control, seat ranges and every race's chance come from counting the results.

What it leaves out. Candidate quality, money and local issues enter only through the polls; House districts have no polls in the model, so close districts are uncertain; in three-way races only the Republican and the stronger of the Democrat and the independent are modeled, so the third candidate's chance is not shown.

How far to trust the numbers. The model has not been backtested against past elections, so its chances have not been checked for calibration. Read a 70% chance as "favored, but loses about three times in ten if the model is right", not as a precise figure; that is why chances are shown in whole percentages.

07Sources

  • Wikipedia, "2026 United States elections", and the article for each Senate and governor race, compiled from pollsters' releases, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index and state election offices; text and tables licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
  • Wikipedia, "2026 United States Senate elections", and the article for each Senate and governor race, compiled from pollsters' releases, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index and state election offices; text and tables licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
  • Wikipedia, "2026 United States gubernatorial elections", and the article for each Senate and governor race, compiled from pollsters' releases, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index and state election offices; text and tables licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
  • Wikipedia, "2026 United States House of Representatives elections", and the article for each Senate and governor race, compiled from pollsters' releases, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index and state election offices; text and tables licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0

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Source data: Wikipedia polling tables and race articles (CC BY-SA 4.0), Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index. Updates: Every 3 hours to election day. Page last updated November 3, 2026. How we build our data pages.